NATURE: SEISMIC PREDICTION CHALLENGES

THIS ONE IS FOR GEOLOGISTS, SEISMOLOGISTS, GEOPHYSICISTS, GEOCHEMISTS & PEOPLE OF ITALY AND THE WORLD ----> ADDED ON 8/27/2015

Shaky Science Behind Predicting EarthquakeThis article on earthquake caught our company's attention. For that matter, poor prediction of the seismic activity resulted in sending experts to jail in Italy. Fortunately, the case was overturned, and those geologists were released in 2014. To help fellow leaders in the area of seismology, geology, geography, our PI took it as a personal challenge to solve this mystery by combining physical, digital and biological worlds.

With our company's primary purpose to transform impossible to possible, or , नामुमकिन को मुमकिन (தமிழ்ல்ல சொல்லுனுனா,  தமிழ்ல்ல பிடிகாத வார்த "முடியாது")projects/products, we are focusing on developing a product that could provide early detection at least several weeks prior to a major seismic activity, and improve upon technologies that provide warning at most few hours prior to a seismic activity . As part of this objective, we have laid down our analysis revolving around Southern California (known as one of most active seismic zones in the world), and look forward to having a technology for early detection in the near future.
Status: Submitted for Patent Application

Google Translate -> Italiano

Scienza Shaky Dietro Previsione Terremoto: Questo articolo sul terremoto ha attirato l'attenzione della nostra azienda. Del resto, povero previsione dell'attività sismica ha provocato l'invio di esperti in carcere in Italia. Per fortuna, il caso è stato rovesciato, e quei geologi sono stati rilasciati nel 2014. Per aiutare altri leader nel campo della sismologia, geologia, geografia, la nostra PI preso come una sfida personale per risolvere questo mistero unendo mondi fisici, digitali e biologiche.

Con scopo primario della nostra azienda per trasformare impossibile possibile, o, नामुमकिन को मुमकिन (தமிழ்ல்ல சொல்லுனுனா, தமிழ்ல்ல பிடிகாத வார்த "முடியாது"), i progetti / prodotti, ci stiamo concentrando sullo sviluppo di un prodotto che potrebbe fornire la diagnosi precoce almeno diverse settimane prima un importante attività sismica, e migliorare le tecnologie che forniscono avvertimento al massimo poche ore prima di una attività sismica. Come parte di questo obiettivo, abbiamo stabilito la nostra analisi che ruota attorno Southern California (conosciuta come una delle zone sismiche più attive del mondo), e siamo ansiosi di avere una tecnologia per la diagnosi precoce in un prossimo futuro.

Stato: Presentato per domanda di brevetto

Principal Investigator's Prior Work

ANALYSIS

There are many different data out there on earthquakes in California. Seismologists, Meteorologists, Geologists, and experts in other related areas can share the challenges when it comes to predicting natural phenomenon such as, earthquakes. But, while looking into some data, there are some notable observations that I would like to share.

In Southern California, three largest earthquakes were measured in the years 1952, 1992 and 1999. Moreover, the three most damaging earthquakes were in the years 1933, 1971 and 1994. If you look at these years, there appears to be one major earthquake within a 20 year period. Moreover, other literature data suggests (at least in couple of places around the globe - needs to be confirmed with more data) that whenever there is extensive drought for an extended period of time followed by a year with above normal rainfall, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or above increases, and usually occurs between 4-24 months after heavy rainfall. Further, USGS studies suggest that there will be one big one between 2003-2032, and another recent study has increased the probability of occurrence for a higher magnitude earthquake by around 3%. Going by all these numbers, and if the upcoming El Nino is supposed to bring above normal rainfall in California, the probability of occurrence for a big earthquake in California in the near future increases. 

Though no one can be assured of such predictions, the risk and impact of a big earthquake on Californian economy, and in turn, US & World economy can be significant, if it were to happen. For that reason, I would highly recommend larger companies in the California area to consider building additional centers in the neighboring states, and state of California can work out a solution with the neighboring states to accommodate for revenue losses coming out of such strategies. Even otherwise, with California being the most populated state, such a move can optimize the population in California to address water and natural resources demand due to recent drought whereas, increasing consumer demand in the neighboring states. Moreover, with rising sea levels, it is a prudent strategy to reduce the population density in the coastal areas. 

From a company's point of view, having additional centers even within the country in neighboring states where wages and salary rates are significantly different would help those companies in hiring more people, and increasing profit margins. Please don't use this strategy to increase the compensation for the elite executives, and elite administrators. 

Note: Such a strategy can be implemented around the globe to reduce/limit losses coming out of natural calamities.

What could be the reason for increased seismic activity under conditions such as, El Nino?

As presented in a National Geographic article titled, "Heavy Rainfall Can Cause Huge Earthquakes", heavy rainfalls in active tectonic plate region tend to loosen fault from rain-induced erosion. Obviously, with prior drought followed by heavy rainfall, soil conditions become ripe for soil erosion and landslides, thus increasing the probability of occurrence for an earthquake.

After writing this article, PI came across the following interesting references: (Added August 28th, 2015)

 New Update: PI's analysis aligns with the recent findings of NASA & USGS (Added October 22nd, 2015)

Irrespective of whether it is 85% or 99.9% probability, prudent actions are needed knowing that there is a higher probability for calamity to happen in the near future.

Questions to answer soon:
  1. What is the size of the economy in the LA/Southern California region?
  2. Is there a simple early detection system that can be implemented, though not currently in use?
  3. What actions are being taken to proactively nullify/limit the impact, if it were to happen in the near future?
  4. What could be the reasons (if there were to be any) for animals identifying earthquakes earlier than the humans?
A detailed account will be available soon.


Added on 12/1/2015

Let us start with Question 4, what could be potential reasons for animals identifying earthquakes earlier than the humans?

Overview: 
Literature suggests that animal behavior drastically changes prior to a major earthquake, and according to geologist, Dr. Berkland, the number of lost pet advertisements increase significantly prior to a major earthquake. At the same time, history points out that the strange behavior and/or exodus of animals can happen well in advance, and need not limit to a day before the happening of an earthquake. This section of the article will present various scientific evidences to support potential reasons for such odd animal behaviors prior to a major seismic activity. 

Dr. Berkland & animal Behavior



Whenever there is a mention of animal behavior predicting earthquake, one of the success stories, in terms of early detection limiting casualties goes back to a 1975 earthquake in China. 

What could be potential reason for abnormal animal behavior, and what is the importance of this information?

a. seismic waves, but literature points out that the change in animal behavior was observed even several days, if not several weeks, prior to a large seismic activity
b. could there be changes in soil gas concentrations, and/or soil texture prior to a major seismic activity?
c. could there be changes in water chemistry & temperature - could Henry's law come into play?
d. could there be relation to magnetic field changes?
d. what technologies are out there, and what needs to be done?
e. potential economic impact - Scenario analyses in LA/NY areas
f. what can be done to limit the losses?

Detailed analysis involving hundred's of articles on earthquakes suggests that the water chemistry changes on top of increase in the emission of certain gases along with changes in temperature well prior to the actual seismic event. 

How is this connected to animal behavior?

Changes in the concentration of gases along with temperature  potentially impacts animals present both in water, and also those that relies on burrowing beneath the ground. With most of those animals having a respiratory system that relies heavily on diffusion, and with respiratory system not as defined as humans, increase in uncommon gases tend to impact respiratory tract of various animals. Moreover, toads that is mentioned in the Smithsonian article, and Snakes are known as poor radiators of heat, and with increase in soil temperature prior to seismic activity, reptiles might notice those changes well in advance compared to humans resulting in exodus of some of these animals well prior to a major seismic activity.

What is the advantage of knowing this information?

To be cont'd.